MASS : It slices! It dices! And does so much more!

It was the beginning of the year and people were making lists and prognostications, as humans are wont to do. Lists of what’s to come, lists of what has been and, apparently, sometimes lists for the sake of lists.  The following comes from the maritime industrial complex championing maritime autonomous surface ships (MASS) with comments added regarding these claims:

Improved safety by reducing human error.

“Automation technology has also created novel and unprecedented opportunities for human error and opened doors to new forms of system breakdown. Operators no longer treat automation as a separate component in the larger operational system. Instead they approach automation as an animate partner in systems operations. One of the myths about automation and human cognition is that as investment in automation increases, less investment is needed in human expertise. Automation technology has a profound influence on human cognition and human work.” – Sidney Dekker and David Woods, Automation and its Impact on Human Cognition

MASS will be designed, built, programmed and maintained by humans.  At any point in these processes, human error can occur which may place the vessel, cargo and environment in danger.  Let us not forget that computer programmers play a role here, as well.  We must recall the $125 million loss of the Mars Climate Observer due to a failure to convert units of measurement or the faulty Boeing 737-MAX flight control software resulting in the deaths of 346 persons.

Increased efficiency through better route planning.

Numerous shipping companies have spent considerable effort on route planning to ensure the shortest, safest routes from point A to point B.  This includes weather routing through software such as DTN SPOS.  Many of these companies will also require the use of commercial weather routers in addition to onboard software to ensure safe passages when in the vicinity of heavy weather or for transoceanic passages.

It is unclear what advantages autonomous shipping might bring to route planning and execution.

Reduced fuel consumption and emissions.

Container shipping companies such as Maersk, Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) and CMA CGM are conducting considerable research into fuel efficiency and emissions reduction.  Maersk, in particular, has used “big data” effectively to optimize their fuel usage and minimize their effects on the environment.  This includes effective planning by the crews onboard their vessels to monitor fuel usage and make necessary adjustments to ensure continued efficiencies.

Lower operating costs.

Operating costs can be expected to increase for MASS in the following areas:

• Redundancy – In order for commercial MASS to be reliable and not require multiple diversions for repairs, such as the Mayflower Autonomous Vessel, it will have redundant mechanical and electronic systems. As Brett Phaneuf of Promar stated, “…the ship itself is always going to be a ship. It’s always going to have problems. And design for our reliability and resilience at sea is really important.“
• Maintenance – Currently, vessel crews conduct extensive preventive and corrective maintenance while underway.  This could be the routine cleaning of sea strainers, replacement of filters or changing of lubricants or the larger and more complex troubleshooting and replacement/repair of components by engineers.  It could also be the routine scaling and coating of steel structure to ensure longevity of the vessel or maintenance of cargo handling/securing equipment by the deck department.  Regardless, if this maintenance is not conducted while underway, it must be conducted somewhere.  As cargo terminals are loathe to have delays at the berth, there will likely be time required at a lay berth for necessary maintenance and repair.  It can be envisioned that a small army of technicians, engineers and labor will routinely be required to board MASS for these reasons.  Time is money, so any delays in port will be costly, both from the immediate costs of the berth and repair personnel and also for the additional fuel costs for higher speeds required to maintain schedules.
• Crew – With no crew onboard vessels, operators can expect to save ~6% of the current operating costs.  Those savings will likely be offset and, perhaps, overcome by the increased costs in other categories as above and for remote monitoring, troubleshooting and response.  There will still be a crew, albeit a remote one, for both operations and maintenance.

Enhanced capacity for data collection and analysis.

This is a head-scratcher.  Maersk and a number of other large shipping companies have been collecting and analyzing information on vessel/system performance for decades. It is then analyzed and operations adjusted to become some of the most profitable shipping companies.

It is unclear how autonomous vessels might do this differently or to greater effect.

Potential for 24/7 operation

Vessels currently operate 24 hours/day and 7 days/week.  It is unclear how autonomous vessels might improve upon this.

Greater flexibility in terms of crewing, as autonomous ships do not require a full complement of human crew members.

Crew – With no crew onboard vessels, operators can expect to save ~6% of the current operating costs.  Those savings will likely be offset and, perhaps, overcome by the increased costs in other categories as above and for remote monitoring, troubleshooting and response.

The ability to operate in challenging or remote locations or in areas where human access may be limited, such as in polar regions or in war zones, as autonomous ships can be remotely controlled or operated by a small on-board crew.

This is certainly a benefit of autonomous vessels.  The types of vessels – survey, environmental/military monitoring, etc are specialized and not general cargo vessels.  Many of these might also operate as daughter-craft to larger vessels of similar types.

Improved cargo handling and loading, as autonomous ships can be equipped with advanced cargo handling systems that can reduce the time and effort required to load and unload vessels.

It is difficult to imagine a cargo handling system that is more efficient than the container vessel.  Perhaps there is room for automation of container terminals and gantry cranes, but the ship itself is in a static condition while loading and discharging cargo.  Certainly, there is always the possibility of innovation on the level of containerization, but…stating it as a benefit of MASS

Enhanced navigation and situational awareness, as autonomous ships can be equipped with advanced sensors and other technologies that provide a more complete picture of the vessel’s surroundings.

Much of this technology can be installed on manned vessels to enhance navigation and situational awareness, but great advances in general AI would be required to make these vessels truly autonomous.  It is the adaptability of the human in the system, whether remote or otherwise, that allows success

Increased predictability and reliability of shipping routes and schedules, as autonomous ships can follow predetermined routes and schedules more consistently than vessels with human crews.

Vessels are already increasingly equipped with autopilots that can follow a specific route.  It’s the adaptability of the human that can assist in making this the most efficient system when confronted with traffic, weather or mechanical challenges.

Enhanced ability to perform tasks such as search and rescue, as autonomous ships can be equipped with advanced sensors and other technologies that can assist in identifying and responding to emergency situations.

Sensor packages can be installed on any platform – manned or unmanned.  It is unclear what advantage autonomous vessels might have in this regard.

With regard to search and rescue, the necessity of a vessel to respond to a distress signal is greatly affected by the ability of the responding vessel to render assistance.  An autonomous vessel would have to be outfitted with a specialized method of responding in such situations which is likely to be far more expensive and less effective than a response by a crewed vessel.

Enhanced ability to perform tasks such as ocean monitoring and forecasting (also monitor and enforce maritime safety regulations, water quality monitoring and testing, monitor and enforce environmental regulations related to shipping, perform tasks such as port security and surveillance, monitor and enforce fishing regulations, enhanced security, conduct scientific research and exploration, ) as autonomous ships can be equipped with advanced sensors and other technologies that can gather data on the ocean environment and assist in the creation of detailed forecasts of weather and sea conditions.

Sensor packages can be installed on any platform – manned or unmanned.  It is unclear what advantage autonomous vessels might have in this regard.

There are sensor packages from companies, such as subCtech, that are being used on vessels as small as round-the-world racing sailboats.  These provide visibility of environmental conditions in remote parts of the world, requiring limited power and user input.  The Malizia sailing team under Boris Hermann is using the OceanPack Race.

Automated sensor packages are already being added to many Voluntary Observation Ships (VOS) through different national meteorological organizations.  These allow automatic transmission of weather data without user input, but also allow the trained observers to augment with additional data collected visually and with the benefit of their experience.

Observations by the Maritime Safety Innovation Lab

Lists of supposed advantages of MASS such as these are quite misleading, as there is no objective evidence to support these claims.  While there is hope that many of these claims will come to fruition, much of it is speculation on the part of technology providers.  Before rushing towards a new technology, care must be taken to ensure all new risks are identified and that we are not simply shifting the potential for error to new and novel places.